Thank You; Inside the Numbers
Larimer County GOP consistently underperformed? Why?
The election is over. The votes are counted. We hoped better for Fort Collins and our state. We ran an aggressive campaign that talked about the issues people care about.
Fort Collins has spoken. For many, Democrat party loyalty trumped inflation, crime, education, and our economy. Elections have consequences.
Thanks to everybody who helped our campaign. You made a difference. You never surrendered, even after county leadership abandoned us, asking us to surrender north Fort Collins. You fought alongside us, for the people of Fort Collins, for their lives, liberty and happiness. Thank you.
Inside the Numbers
The GOP consistently underperformed in Larimer County, regardless of candidate, message, spending, and volunteer effort.
GOP underperformance for HD 52 (south Fort Collins) and HD 53 (north Fort Collins) seems to correlate with GOP handicaps reported to candidates by county leadership:
HD 52: -3% (GOP down 3 percent).
HD 53: -13% (GOP down 13 percent).
These handicap estimates support the following GOP vote estimates:
HD 52: 47% = 50% -3%.
HD 53: 37% = 50% -13%.
We used these estimates as benchmarks to measure against actual performance.
The GOP candidates for HD 52 (Dee Dee Vicino) and HD 53 (Donna Walter) ran very different campaigns in districts with different electorates.
HD 52: Dee Dee’s campaign was well-funded, well-promoted, had many volunteers, and voiced its candidate message.
HD 53: Donna’s campaign was poorly-funded (defunded by county leaders Weinberg & Brush, who also discouraged donations), weakly-promoted, had few volunteers, and voiced its (much more aggressive) candidate message.
So, these were two very different campaigns in candidate, spending, message, and support.
Yet, the campaigns performed nearly identically (compared to forecasts), regardless of candidate, spending, message, and effort.
Compared to forecasts, both campaigns underperformed with near identical underperformance.
HD 52: -12% (forecast 47%, actual 35%).
HD 53: -13% (forecast 37%, actual 24%).
We prepared this analysis for no reason other than to analyze campaign performance (forecast versus actual). Analysis reflects published Larimer County elections summary reports (from 11-08-2022 to 11-09-2022).
Surprisingly, both campaign underperformed nearly identically, compared to forecasts (-12% and -13%). Remarkably, both campaign’s underperformance closely correlated with GOP handicap. (This is unexpected.)
Keep Fighting. Never Surrender.
Although victory was not ours, I will continue fighting for Colorado, for our citizens, and for our children.
Remember, you are the party. Get involved. Don’t reward bad leadership. Pick better leaders.
And never surrender. Always keep fighting.
Donna Walter for Colorado House